{"id":231153,"date":"2025-01-31T13:51:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-31T11:51:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/?p=231153"},"modified":"2025-01-31T11:26:00","modified_gmt":"2025-01-31T09:26:00","slug":"ujabb-felmillio-ember-hagyta-el-ukrajnat-egy-ev-alatt-es-a-tomeges-visszateres-nem-valoszinu-nbu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/?p=231153&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"\u00dajabb f\u00e9lmilli\u00f3 ember hagyta el Ukrajn\u00e1t egy \u00e9v alatt, \u00e9s a t\u00f6meges visszat\u00e9r\u00e9s nem val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171 \u2013 NBU"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A magas biztons\u00e1gi kock\u00e1zatok, a folyamatos t\u00e1mad\u00e1sok \u00e9s puszt\u00edt\u00e1s, valamint a tart\u00f3s \u00e1ramhi\u00e1ny negat\u00edvan befoly\u00e1solja az ukr\u00e1nok \u00e9letmin\u0151s\u00e9g\u00e9t, \u00e9s ez tov\u00e1bbi k\u00fcls\u0151 migr\u00e1ci\u00f3hoz vezet \u2013 sz\u00e1molt be p\u00e9nteken az rbc.ua<\/a> h\u00edrport\u00e1l az Ukr\u00e1n Nemzeti Bank (NBU) 2025. janu\u00e1ri infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s jelent\u00e9s\u00e9re hivatkozva.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A jelent\u00e9s szerin \u201e2024-ben folytat\u00f3dott Ukrajn\u00e1b\u00f3l a menek\u00fcltek ki\u00e1raml\u00e1sa, \u00e9s ez \u00e9vente k\u00f6r\u00fclbel\u00fcl 0,5 milli\u00f3 embert tett ki, ami \u00f6sszhangban van az NBU becsl\u00e9seivel.\u201d Amint azt az NBU megjegyezte, ez okot ad arra, hogy ne v\u00e1ltoztassa meg a migr\u00e1ci\u00f3 tov\u00e1bbi dinamik\u00e1j\u00e1val kapcsolatos felt\u00e9telez\u00e9seket. 2025-ben v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an folytat\u00f3dik a menek\u00fcltek nett\u00f3 ki\u00e1raml\u00e1sa (kb. 0,2 milli\u00f3 f\u0151), 2026-ban pedig megkezd\u0151dik a migr\u00e1nsok nett\u00f3 visszat\u00e9r\u00e9se Ukrajn\u00e1ba (kb. 0,2 milli\u00f3 f\u0151), ami 2027-ben felgyorsul (kb. 0,5 milli\u00f3 f\u0151).<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Az NBU szerint az ukr\u00e1nok k\u00fclf\u00f6ld\u00f6n t\u00f6rt\u00e9n\u0151 tov\u00e1bbi alkalmazkod\u00e1sa miatt cs\u00f6kken a visszat\u00e9rni v\u00e1gy\u00f3k ar\u00e1nya. \u201eEz\u00e9rt val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171tlennek t\u0171nik a menek\u00fcltek t\u00f6meges \u00e9s gyors visszat\u00e9r\u00e9se a status quo alatt, aminek k\u00f6vetkezt\u00e9ben a munkaer\u0151hi\u00e1ny az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9si id\u0151szakban is fennmarad\u201d \u2013 \u00e1ll a dokumentumban. Az NBU magasnak (25-50%) \u00e9rt\u00e9keli a menek\u00fcltek nagyobb ki\u00e1raml\u00e1s\u00e1nak \u00e9s az alacsonyabb visszat\u00e9r\u00e9si ar\u00e1nynak a kock\u00e1zatait. Megval\u00f3sul\u00e1suk eset\u00e9n romlik a munkaer\u0151piac, cs\u00f6kkenhet a belf\u00f6ldi fogyaszt\u00f3i kereslet.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\u201eUgyanakkor a befogad\u00f3 orsz\u00e1gok ukr\u00e1n migr\u00e1nsokkal szembeni politik\u00e1j\u00e1nak a v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sa, valamint az ukr\u00e1n korm\u00e1ny proakt\u00edv politik\u00e1ja a migr\u00e1nsok hazat\u00e9r\u00e9se fel\u00e9 \u00e9l\u00e9nk\u00edtheti a vissza\u00e1raml\u00e1st. Ezt \u00f6szt\u00f6n\u00f6zheti a biztons\u00e1gi kock\u00e1zatok gyors cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se Ukrajn\u00e1ban. Ebben az esetben cs\u00f6kken a munkaer\u0151hi\u00e1ny, gyorsabban helyre\u00e1ll a fogyaszt\u00f3i kereslet, ugyanakkor a munkan\u00e9lk\u00fclis\u00e9g n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9nek a kock\u00e1zatai is n\u00f6vekedhetnek r\u00f6vid t\u00e1von\u201d \u2013 \u00e1ll az NBU jelent\u00e9s\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(vb\/rbc.ua)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<!– creatorid:bey5821 –><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A magas biztons\u00e1gi kock\u00e1zatok, a folyamatos t\u00e1mad\u00e1sok \u00e9s puszt\u00edt\u00e1s, valamint a tart\u00f3s \u00e1ramhi\u00e1ny negat\u00edvan befoly\u00e1solja az ukr\u00e1nok \u00e9letmin\u0151s\u00e9g\u00e9t, \u00e9s ez tov\u00e1bbi k\u00fcls\u0151 migr\u00e1ci\u00f3hoz vezet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":231158,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4000,41,596,83882,11,592,33],"tags":[48032,1995,82890],"class_list":["post-231153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actual-hu","category-cikkek","category-erdekes","category-war-hu","category-kiemelt-tema","category-tarsadalom","category-ukrajna","tag-lakossag","tag-statisztika","tag-ukran-menekultek"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/231153","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=231153"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/231153\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":231159,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/231153\/revisions\/231159"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/231158"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=231153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=231153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=231153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}