{"id":240267,"date":"2025-04-30T16:09:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-30T13:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/?p=240267"},"modified":"2025-04-30T08:12:49","modified_gmt":"2025-04-30T05:12:49","slug":"mikor-szunik-meg-az-ukran-menekultek-kiaramlasa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/?p=240267&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Mikor sz\u0171nik meg az ukr\u00e1n menek\u00fcltek ki\u00e1raml\u00e1sa?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Id\u00e9n tov\u00e1bbi 200 ezer \u00e1llampolg\u00e1r hagyhatja el Ukrajn\u00e1t. A migr\u00e1nsok visszat\u00e9r\u00e9se csak a biztons\u00e1gi kock\u00e1zatok jelent\u0151s cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se ut\u00e1n v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 \u2013 sz\u00e1molt be az RBC-Ukrajina az Ukr\u00e1n Nemzeti Bank 2025 \u00e1prilisi \u201eInfl\u00e1ci\u00f3s jelent\u00e9s\u00e9re\u201d hivatkozva.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201eA migr\u00e1ci\u00f3s folyamatok tov\u00e1bbra is negat\u00edvak, mivel a lehets\u00e9ges t\u0171zsz\u00fcnetr\u0151l sz\u00f3l\u00f3 t\u00e1rgyal\u00e1sok megkezd\u00e9se ellen\u00e9re azok kimenetele bizonytalan. Mindek\u00f6zben fokoz\u00f3dtak Ukrajna ter\u00fclet\u00e9nek bomb\u00e1z\u00e1sai \u00e9s a civil lakoss\u00e1g elleni terrorcselekm\u00e9nyek\u201d \u2013 \u00e1ll a dokumentumban.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"724\" height=\"482\" src=\"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/14957-724x0-803.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-240224\" srcset=\"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/14957-724x0-803.jpg 724w, https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/14957-724x0-803-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 724px) 100vw, 724px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A jegybank hangs\u00falyozta, az ukr\u00e1n menek\u00fcltek jogi st\u00e1tusz\u00e1t a befogad\u00f3 orsz\u00e1gokban a harci cselekm\u00e9nyek ut\u00e1ni id\u0151szakra m\u00e9g nem szab\u00e1lyozt\u00e1k. E tekintetben tov\u00e1bbi n\u00e9pess\u00e9gki\u00e1raml\u00e1s v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 k\u00fclf\u00f6ldre mindaddig, am\u00edg a biztons\u00e1gi fenyegetetts\u00e9g szintje magas marad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek szerint a felt\u00e9telez\u00e9sek v\u00e1ltozatlanok maradnak: 2025-ben a migr\u00e1nsok ki\u00e1raml\u00e1sa v\u00e1rhat\u00f3, mintegy 200 ezer f\u0151, m\u00edg 2026-t\u00f3l fokozatos hazat\u00e9r\u00e9st j\u00f3solnak \u2013 szint\u00e9n mintegy 200 ezer f\u0151t, 2027-ben pedig a hazat\u00e9r\u0151k sz\u00e1ma ak\u00e1r 500 ezer f\u0151re n\u0151het.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201eAz ukr\u00e1n migr\u00e1nsok visszat\u00e9r\u00e9se fokozatos lesz, \u00edgy a munkaer\u0151hi\u00e1ny k\u00f6z\u00e9pt\u00e1von is fennmarad. Ez hozz\u00e1j\u00e1rul a b\u00e9rek tov\u00e1bbi, a munkatermel\u00e9kenys\u00e9get meghalad\u00f3 \u00fctem\u0171 n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9hez, ami fokozott infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s nyom\u00e1shoz vezet. Ezenk\u00edv\u00fcl a munkaer\u0151 hi\u00e1nya f\u00e9kezni fogja a gazdas\u00e1gi fellend\u00fcl\u00e9s \u00fctem\u00e9t\u201d \u2013 \u00e1ll az Ukr\u00e1n Nemzeti Bank \u201eInfl\u00e1ci\u00f3s jelent\u00e9s\u00e9ben\u201d (2025. \u00e1prilis), amelyre az RBC-Ukrajina hivatkozik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Eml\u00e9keztet\u0151\u00fcl, az ENSZ Menek\u00fclt\u00fcgyi F\u0151biztoss\u00e1ga szerint a 2024. december 16-i adatok szerint az ukr\u00e1n menek\u00fcltek sz\u00e1ma a vil\u00e1gon 6,8 milli\u00f3 f\u0151 volt. Az oroszorsz\u00e1gi \u00e9s feh\u00e9roroszorsz\u00e1giakat nem sz\u00e1m\u00edtva azonban ez a sz\u00e1m 5,5 milli\u00f3. A jegybank adatai szerint 2024 v\u00e9g\u00e9n az ukr\u00e1nok k\u00fclf\u00f6ldre val\u00f3 ki\u00e1raml\u00e1sa k\u00f6r\u00fclbel\u00fcl 0,5 milli\u00f3 f\u0151 volt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Vajon itthon vagy k\u00fclf\u00f6ld\u00f6n egyes\u00fclnek a csal\u00e1dok?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az Ukr\u00e1n Nemzeti Bank megjegyezte, hogy sz\u00e1mos felm\u00e9r\u00e9s eredm\u00e9nye az ukr\u00e1nok fokozatos k\u00fclf\u00f6ldi alkalmazkod\u00e1s\u00e1t jelzi. Egyre t\u00f6bb \u00e1llampolg\u00e1r tal\u00e1l munk\u00e1t, \u00e9s biztos\u00edt csal\u00e1dj\u00e1nak olyan \u00e9letsz\u00ednvonalat, amely az ukrajnai h\u00e1bor\u00fa el\u0151tti szintnek felel meg. Ez az adapt\u00e1ci\u00f3 cs\u00f6kkenti a hazat\u00e9rni tervez\u0151k sz\u00e1m\u00e1t, \u00e9s egy\u00fattal n\u00f6veli a csal\u00e1degyes\u00edt\u00e9s val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00e9g\u00e9t m\u00e1s orsz\u00e1gokban.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A jegybak \u201eInfl\u00e1ci\u00f3s jelent\u00e9s\u00e9ben\u201d (2025. \u00e1prilis) hangs\u00falyozza, a fokozott biztons\u00e1gi fenyeget\u00e9sek, az energiaell\u00e1t\u00e1si zavarok, valamint a befogad\u00f3 orsz\u00e1gok korm\u00e1nyainak akt\u00edv int\u00e9zked\u00e9sei az ukr\u00e1nok k\u00fclf\u00f6ld\u00f6n tart\u00e1s\u00e1ra negat\u00edv kock\u00e1zatokat jelenthetnek a migr\u00e1ci\u00f3s el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sekre n\u00e9zve. Ilyen forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv eset\u00e9n cs\u00f6kkenhet a belf\u00f6ldi fogyaszt\u00f3i kereslet, \u00e9s fokoz\u00f3dhat a munkaer\u0151hi\u00e1ny, ami negat\u00edvan befoly\u00e1solhatja az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3t \u00e9s a gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9st.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ugyanakkor megjegyezt\u00e9k, hogy pozit\u00edv t\u00e9nyez\u0151k is vannak: a magas j\u00f6vedelmek \u00e9s az ukrajnai lakhat\u00e1s el\u00e9rhet\u0151s\u00e9ge hozz\u00e1j\u00e1rul az itthon marad\u00e1s melletti d\u00f6nt\u00e9shez. Ez\u00e9rt a gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9s, a lak\u00e1s\u00e1llom\u00e1ny \u00e9s az infrastrukt\u00fara helyre\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1sa felgyors\u00edthatja az ukr\u00e1nok hazat\u00e9r\u00e9s\u00e9t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Okszana CSOPAK<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&lt;!&#8211;translatorid:ild5234 &#8211;&gt;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Id\u00e9n tov\u00e1bbi 200 ezer \u00e1llampolg\u00e1r hagyhatja el Ukrajn\u00e1t. A migr\u00e1nsok visszat\u00e9r\u00e9se csak a biztons\u00e1gi kock\u00e1zatok jelent\u0151s cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se ut\u00e1n v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 \u2013 sz\u00e1molt be az RBC-Ukrajina az Ukr\u00e1n Nemzeti Bank 2025 \u00e1prilisi \u201eInfl\u00e1ci\u00f3s jelent\u00e9s\u00e9re\u201d hivatkozva.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":240224,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,83882,11,592,33],"tags":[1758,1893456,19808,82890],"class_list":["post-240267","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-war-hu","category-kiemelt-tema","category-tarsadalom","category-ukrajna","tag-elvandorlas","tag-hazaaramlas","tag-migracio","tag-ukran-menekultek"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/240267","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=240267"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/240267\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":240268,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/240267\/revisions\/240268"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/240224"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=240267"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=240267"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=240267"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}