{"id":283917,"date":"2026-05-17T20:34:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-17T17:34:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/?p=283917"},"modified":"2026-05-17T19:27:00","modified_gmt":"2026-05-17T16:27:00","slug":"torekeny-beke-eseten-az-ukran-menekultek-56-szazaleka-europaban-marad-ensz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/?p=283917&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"T\u00f6r\u00e9keny b\u00e9ke eset\u00e9n az ukr\u00e1n menek\u00fcltek 56 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9ka Eur\u00f3p\u00e1ban marad \u2013 ENSZ"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Az orosz\u2013ukr\u00e1n h\u00e1bor\u00faban ukr\u00e1n \u201eengedm\u00e9nyekkel j\u00e1r\u00f3 t\u00f6r\u00e9keny b\u00e9ke\u201d el\u00e9r\u00e9s\u00e9nek forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyve eset\u00e9n az ukr\u00e1n menek\u00fcltek jelenlegi sz\u00e1m\u00e1nak t\u00f6bb mint fele 2029 v\u00e9g\u00e9ig Eur\u00f3p\u00e1ban marad \u2013 \u00e1ll az Egyes\u00fclt Nemzetek Menek\u00fclt\u00fcgyi F\u0151biztoss\u00e1g\u00e1nak (UNHCR) tanulm\u00e1ny\u00e9ban, sz\u00e1molt be vas\u00e1rnap az Ukrajinszka Pravda<\/a> h\u00edrport\u00e1l.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A jelent\u00e9s szerint az ENSZ-tanulm\u00e1ny egyik forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyve egy olyan helyzetet modellez, amelyben Oroszorsz\u00e1g de facto tov\u00e1bbra is ellen\u0151rzi az ideiglenesen megsz\u00e1llt ter\u00fcleteket, az ukr\u00e1n korm\u00e1ny \u00e1ltal ellen\u0151rz\u00f6tt ter\u00fcleteken a beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok szintje k\u00f6zepes vagy magas szinten marad, \u00e9s az ukr\u00e1n menek\u00fcltek ideiglenes v\u00e9delmi st\u00e1tusza az Eur\u00f3pai Uni\u00f3ban 2027 m\u00e1rcius\u00e1ban megsz\u0171nik.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Ebben az esetben a becsl\u00e9sek szerint 2,9 milli\u00f3 ukr\u00e1n menek\u00fclt (a jelenlegi l\u00e9tsz\u00e1m 56%-a) marad Eur\u00f3p\u00e1ban legal\u00e1bb 2029-ig. A m\u00e1sodik forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv \u2013 a \u201estatus quo\u201d, azaz az orosz agresszi\u00f3 folytat\u00f3d\u00e1sa \u2013 szerint 2029 v\u00e9g\u00e9re 5,16 milli\u00f3 ukr\u00e1n menek\u00fclt lesz Eur\u00f3p\u00e1ban (a jelenlegi l\u00e9tsz\u00e1muk 99%-a). A harmadik forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv szerint, amely Ukrajna gy\u0151zelm\u00e9t felt\u00e9telezi az elfoglalt ter\u00fcletek visszaad\u00e1s\u00e1val az \u00e9v v\u00e9g\u00e9ig, a menek\u00fcltek sz\u00e1ma 32%-ra cs\u00f6kkenhet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Az UNHCR tiszt\u00e1zta, hogy ezek a forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvek nem predikt\u00edvek, \u00e9s a tanulm\u00e1ny sz\u00e1mos adat, t\u00f6bbek k\u00f6z\u00f6tt felm\u00e9r\u00e9sek alapj\u00e1n mutatta be, hogyan v\u00e1ltozhat a menek\u00fcltek viselked\u00e9se a val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00edthet\u0151 j\u00f6v\u0151beli esem\u00e9nyekre adott v\u00e1laszk\u00e9nt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(vb\/pravda.com.ua)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<!– creatorid:bey5821 –><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Az orosz\u2013ukr\u00e1n h\u00e1bor\u00faban ukr\u00e1n \u201eengedm\u00e9nyekkel j\u00e1r\u00f3 t\u00f6r\u00e9keny b\u00e9ke\u201d el\u00e9r\u00e9s\u00e9nek forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyve eset\u00e9n az ukr\u00e1n menek\u00fcltek jelenlegi sz\u00e1m\u00e1nak t\u00f6bb mint fele 2029 v\u00e9g\u00e9ig Eur\u00f3p\u00e1ban marad.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":283918,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,4000,41,596,83884,11,592,39],"tags":[1853264,3924819,2803,105,82890],"class_list":["post-283917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-nap-hirei","category-actual-hu","category-cikkek","category-erdekes","category-war-help-hu","category-kiemelt-tema","category-tarsadalom","category-vilag","tag-bekemegallapodas","tag-egyesult-nemzetek-menekultugyi-fobiztossaganak-unhcr","tag-ensz","tag-tanulmany","tag-ukran-menekultek"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283917","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=283917"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283917\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":283919,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283917\/revisions\/283919"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/283918"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=283917"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=283917"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=283917"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}