{"id":49001,"date":"2021-03-12T22:39:00","date_gmt":"2021-03-12T20:39:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/?p=49001"},"modified":"2021-03-12T21:47:38","modified_gmt":"2021-03-12T19:47:38","slug":"a-tudosok-legutobbi-elorejelzesei-szerint-globalis-valtozasok-varnak-a-vilagra","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/?p=49001&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"A tud\u00f3sok legut\u00f3bbi el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sei szerint glob\u00e1lis v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sok v\u00e1rnak a vil\u00e1gra"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bolyg\u00f3nk folyamatosan v\u00e1ltozik&#8230; Viszont nem \u00fagy, ahogyan szeretn\u00e9nk, mivel az ember hat\u00e1sa a term\u00e9szetre, az \u00f6kol\u00f3gi\u00e1ra, az er\u0151forr\u00e1sokra \u00e9s az \u00e9ghajlatra r\u00e9g\u00f3ta puszt\u00edt\u00f3 \u00e9s hal\u00e1los hat\u00e1ssal van a bolyg\u00f3nk n\u00f6v\u00e9ny- \u00e9s \u00e1llatvil\u00e1g\u00e1ra. S\u0151t, a felel\u0151tlen erd\u0151irt\u00e1s, az \u00e1sv\u00e1nyi anyagok kitermel\u00e9se, a vesz\u00e9lyes hullad\u00e9k \u00e9s \u00e9g\u00e9sterm\u00e9k kibocs\u00e1t\u00e1sa a F\u00f6ldet fokozatosan a \u201ehal\u00e1l bolyg\u00f3v\u00e1\u201d alak\u00edtja \u00e1t.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/0-47.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48864\" width=\"678\" height=\"290\" srcset=\"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/0-47.jpg 512w, https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/0-47-300x128.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 678px) 100vw, 678px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">K\u00e9ts\u00e9gtelen, hogy ezek a v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sok hat\u00e1ssal vannak bolyg\u00f3nk m\u00e1s folyamataira, p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul az \u00e9vszakok\/\u00e9ghajlati szezonok id\u0151tartam\u00e1ra. \u00c9s m\u00e1r ma megfigyelhetj\u00fck, hogy a napt\u00e1ri t\u00e9l vagy tavasz, n\u00e9h\u00e1ny h\u00e9ttel, s\u0151t egy n\u00e9ha eg\u00e9sz h\u00f3nappal elt\u00e9r az ablakon k\u00edv\u00fcl l\u00e1tottakkal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ma m\u00e1r elmondhat\u00f3, hogy a glob\u00e1lis felmeleged\u00e9s elleni k\u00fczdelem n\u00e9lk\u00fcl a csaknem hat h\u00f3napig tart\u00f3 ny\u00e1r \u00faj norm\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00e1lhat a D\u00e9li f\u00e9ltek\u00e9n j\u00f3val 2100 el\u0151tt. Ennek a v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1snak val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg messzemen\u0151 hat\u00e1ssal lesz a mez\u0151gazdas\u00e1gra, az emberi eg\u00e9szs\u00e9gre, a k\u00f6rnyezetre \u2013 \u00e1ll\u00edtj\u00e1k az \u00e9ghajlat-kutat\u00f3k legut\u00f3bbi tanulm\u00e1nyaikban.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">K\u00f6r\u00fclbel\u00fcl 50-70 \u00e9vvel ezel\u0151tt, az \u00c9szaki f\u00e9ltek\u00e9n, az \u00e9vszakok v\u00e1ltakoz\u00e1sa meglehet\u0151sen kisz\u00e1m\u00edthat\u00f3 \u00e9s z\u00f6kken\u0151mentes volt. De a jelenlegi \u00e9ghajlati transzform\u00e1ci\u00f3k \u201egyors \u00e9s szab\u00e1lytalan\u201d v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sokhoz vezetnek, amelyek befoly\u00e1solj\u00e1k az \u00e9vszakok id\u0151tartam\u00e1t, \u00e9s a j\u00f6v\u0151ben sz\u00e9ls\u0151s\u00e9gesebb\u00e9 v\u00e1lhatnak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/2-2021-03-11t195242652.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48865\" width=\"373\" height=\"404\" srcset=\"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/2-2021-03-11t195242652.jpg 508w, https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/2-2021-03-11t195242652-277x300.jpg 277w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 373px) 100vw, 373px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201eA ny\u00e1r egyre hosszabb \u00e9s forr\u00f3bb, a t\u00e9l pedig egyre r\u00f6videbb \u00e9s melegebb lesz a glob\u00e1lis felmeleged\u00e9s miatt\u201d \u2013 \u00f6sszegezte Yuping Guan, vezet\u0151 szerz\u0151je annak a tanulm\u00e1nynak, amely nemr\u00e9giben jelent meg a Geophysical Research Letters c\u00edm\u0171 amerikai tudom\u00e1nyos foly\u00f3iratban. Egy csoporttal k\u00f6z\u00f6sen oceanogr\u00e1fi\u00e1t kutat a K\u00ednai Tudom\u00e1nyos Akad\u00e9mi\u00e1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201eEgyre gyakrabban t\u00f6rt\u00e9ntek az id\u0151szakra nem jellemz\u0151 id\u0151j\u00e1r\u00e1si el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek, p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul t\u00e9ves tavasz, m\u00e1jusi havaz\u00e1s\u201d \u2013 magyar\u00e1zza a tud\u00f3s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A kutat\u00f3k az \u00c9szaki f\u00e9lteke 1952 \u00e9s 2011 k\u00f6z\u00f6tti id\u0151szak napi \u00e9ghajlati adatait haszn\u00e1lt\u00e1k fel, hogy meghat\u00e1rozz\u00e1k a v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sok id\u0151tartam\u00e1t \u00e9s n\u00e9gy \u00e9vszak v\u00e1ltakoz\u00e1s\u00e1t. Ezut\u00e1n a csapat a kapott modelleket haszn\u00e1lta fel arra, hogy el\u0151re jelezhesse az \u00e9vszakok j\u00f6v\u0151beli v\u00e1ltakoz\u00e1s\u00e1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A tanulm\u00e1ny meg\u00e1llap\u00edtotta, hogy 1952 \u00e9s 2011 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt a ny\u00e1r 78 napr\u00f3l 95 napra n\u0151tt, a t\u00e9l pedig 76 napr\u00f3l 73 napra cs\u00f6kkent. A tavasz 124-r\u0151l 115-re, illetve az \u0151sz 87-r\u0151l 82 napra cs\u00f6kkent. Ugyanakkor a tavasz \u00e9s a ny\u00e1r kor\u00e1bban, az \u0151sz \u00e9s a t\u00e9l pedig k\u00e9s\u0151bb. A mediterr\u00e1n t\u00e9rs\u00e9g \u00e9s a Tibeti fenns\u00edk tapasztalta a szezon\u00e1lis ciklusok legnagyobb v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sait. Ha ez a tendencia megmarad, \u00e9s nem tesznek semmit az \u00e9ghajlatv\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s hat\u00e1sainak enyh\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9re, a kutat\u00f3k el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sei szerint 2100-ra a t\u00e9l kevesebb, mint k\u00e9t h\u00f3nap lesz, a tavaszt \u00e9s \u0151szt megel\u0151z\u0151 id\u0151szak m\u00e9g r\u00f6videbb lesz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"640\" src=\"http:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/4-2021-03-11t195246571-1024x640.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48866\" srcset=\"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/4-2021-03-11t195246571-1024x640.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/4-2021-03-11t195246571-300x188.jpg 300w, https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/4-2021-03-11t195246571-768x480.jpg 768w, https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/4-2021-03-11t195246571-1536x960.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/4-2021-03-11t195246571.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201eSz\u00e1mos tanulm\u00e1ny kimutatta, hogy az \u00e9vszakok v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sa jelent\u0151s kock\u00e1zatot jelent a k\u00f6rnyezetre \u00e9s az emberi eg\u00e9szs\u00e9gre n\u00e9zve\u201d \u2013 hangs\u00falyozta Guan. P\u00e9ld\u00e1nak hozta fel a madarak v\u00e1ndorl\u00e1si mint\u00e1inak v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s\u00e1t, a n\u00f6v\u00e9nyek pedig k\u00fcl\u00f6nb\u00f6z\u0151 id\u0151szakokban gy\u00f6kereznek, \u00e9s r\u00e1ad\u00e1sul t\u00e9len is vir\u00edtanak. Ezen fenol\u00f3giai v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sok eredm\u00e9nyek\u00e9nt felborulhat az egyens\u00faly az \u00e1llatok \u00e9s t\u00e1pl\u00e1l\u00e9kforr\u00e1saik k\u00f6z\u00f6tt, ami az \u00f6kol\u00f3giai k\u00f6z\u00f6ss\u00e9gek felboml\u00e1s\u00e1hoz vezet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az \u00e9vszakok eltol\u00f3d\u00e1sa s\u00falyos id\u0151j\u00e1r\u00e1si jelens\u00e9gekhez vezethet. A csaknem f\u00e9l \u00e9vig tart\u00f3 ny\u00e1r m\u00e9g forr\u00f3bb \u00e9s egyre gyakrabban k\u00eds\u00e9ri majd rendellenes h\u0151s\u00e9g \u00e9s az erd\u0151t\u00fczek, figyelmeztetnek a tud\u00f3sok.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&lt;!&#8211; translatorid:ild5234 &#8211;&gt;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bolyg\u00f3nk folyamatosan v\u00e1ltozik&#8230; Viszont nem \u00fagy, ahogyan szeretn\u00e9nk, mivel az ember hat\u00e1sa a term\u00e9szetre, az \u00f6kol\u00f3gi\u00e1ra, az er\u0151forr\u00e1sokra \u00e9s az \u00e9ghajlatra r\u00e9g\u00f3ta puszt\u00edt\u00f3 \u00e9s hal\u00e1los hat\u00e1ssal van a bolyg\u00f3nk n\u00f6v\u00e9ny- \u00e9s \u00e1llatvil\u00e1g\u00e1ra. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":48864,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4000,41,596,11,592,598,39],"tags":[12648,9566],"class_list":["post-49001","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actual-hu","category-cikkek","category-erdekes","category-kiemelt-tema","category-tarsadalom","category-tudomany","category-vilag","tag-eghajlatvaltozas","tag-okologia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49001","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=49001"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49001\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/48864"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=49001"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=49001"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/life.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=49001"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}